There is no previous indication from sales in the 4th quarter of 2017 that a 20 year MFH on a city lot can or will sell for $300,000. That’s a stretch, but sellers are always going to test the market in the winter months, so this is not unexpected. Low inventory continues to make pricing volatility the rule for the next few weeks until the full spring inventory gets listed and buyers have some real choices. Until then, any buyer that need a 3 bedroom and 2 bathroom home and is working with a budget will have to consider homes like this, regardless of the historical pricing data that puts this home closer to $265,000 than $300,000. That being said, the home has some nice up-grades that are not typical in manufactured homes. This home features upgraded kitchen and bathroom counters, upgraded cupboards and vanities, and upgraded floor covering in the kitchen. Those upgrades give the home the look of a $300,000 home if it was stick built home. Maybe a buyer will not care that the bones are from a home that typically sells at a discount to the premium price buyers pay for stick built homes in the same condition.
Given how quickly things are moving right now, this one might sell, or it could be the first of the year where buyers say the price is too rich, and the seller has to concede to get it sold. We will watch this one to see what happens.
This home is more than just a cosmetic fixer. It is the definition of functionally obsolete. It only has one bathroom, and the condition is poor. The kitchen looks like it needs a gut and replace, and the interior and exterior both need attention. What this bank owned repo has going for it is the three car detached garage, the large flat garden area, and the very large lot size- 5.8 acres. At the $300,000 price point, there have been just 4 properties in the last year that have had five or more acres, and none of them have had homes that were in any better condition than this home. The size of the lot makes it difficult to establish comparable sales. There simply are not enough properties with that much acreage to compare. However, the value of the land can easily be established because there are lots of land sales, properties with no house, that can be used as a guide to know what the property is worth independent of the house.
The land alone is worth between $120,000 and $150,000. The difference between the higher and lower value depend on the strength of the well and certification of the septic system, both of which a buyer would have to find out during their inspection period because the bank who owns the property has not done any inspections. If the well is a low producer, or if the septic has failed, then the property would be closer to $120,000 in value, with a good well and operational septic, the property would be worth closer to the $150,000 price. The reason the property is capped at about $150,000 is because of the freeway noise. You can definitely here Hwy 49 from the property. The garage is worth about $50,000. When a renovation was completed, and if a second bathroom could be added, the home would be worth about $425,000 to $450,000 depending on the quality of the finishes used.
14818 Woodland Loop listed for $235,000
18435 Lake Forest Listed for $275,000
Two homes in Wildwood listed on the same day. They are part of the building inventory of new listing in Wildwood. New listing that are selling as quickly as they are listed. Rising prices are inevitable as long as this demand remains strong. How long will that be? In previous years, a quick start to the spring market has meant rising prices through June. In some years the rise never really materializes. Homes seem to go up in value at the beginning of the year, but then in March they flatten out. Two different markets in different years. No way of knowing if real estate is poised for a really big year, or if this year will see a decline or correction due to prices falling.
The market for ranch style homes that are clean, have a few upgrades, are move in ready, and have one or two complementary features or amenities that give the home a unique architectural identity. In addition to clean carpets good paint, this home has an office that could be used for exercise or a desk, or any number of projects. It is a good use of space when combined with the other typical ranch style floor plan.
The home is in move-in ready condition. It is small, similar to homes more typically found in Grass Valley, but this home, located over miles from pavement on the back side of the Big Oak Valley, on almost 2 acres is perfect for someone with a horse or 4H inclinations.
The downside for this home is the distance from pavement. It is a long dusty road in summer, muddy and pocked with puddles all winter, and heavy traffic all year because the road right in front of the house is the main entry and exit road for dozens of homes that are further out into the Big Oak Valley. Still, the price is right for this home, and in the multiple it says the seller is expecting multiple offers and will consider all offers at the end of the first week on the market. That might be a big overly optimistic on the seller’s part. This home is not an investment grade offering, but it is a solid value for the right buyer. I am guessing it will sell at or near the asking price, I doubt it will get multiple offers.
Copy this MLS #: 20181100 and click the link and paste the number into the prompt, and the link will take you to pictures and property profile information from the MLS. Scroll down, click on pictures- (You will be directed away from this page, so watch my video first!)
The only rule in real estate is: when you think you have seen everything something totally new will come up. This property has been for sale since August of last year, but listed at $338,000 it is above the range of properties I typically preview. Only because inventory is so low at this time of year do I expand the price range and start looking up above the $325,000 number that typically defines the top end. And what an odd ball this one proved to be!
It is a church, built in 1989, modern construction, well built, sanctuary, small kitchen two commercial bathrooms, an one separate room that could be used as a bedroom. OK, the problem is the interior would need to be completely remodeled, the kitchen and bathrooms would need to be torn out, new wall and doors added. The remodel could cost more than new construction. The shell is excellent, but the real cost of the building are in the guts, and while there is no issues with the condition, this property is the definition of functional obsolescence. It does not matter how good the condition is, if you can’t use any of the features and want all new amenities, the home is no better than a fixer.
So, what’s it really worth? Well, if you want a church, it is probably looks like it is priced fairly. You certainly could not replace the existing structure for anything near the asking price. However, if what you want is a single family home, and you have to convert this property into a two or three bedroom house, you would need to pay less than $250,000 and even then it would not be home to flip.
Like everything else, we watch and see what a buyer is willing to offer and seller is willing to take. If there is church group or ministry out there looking this might be a great deal, but for your investor or even for a person looking for a single family home, this home probably will not work.
There three bedroom and two bathroom ranch style homes that were build in the late 1970’s and early 1980’s are the most common homes in the entire subdivision. The floor plans vary only slightly, so what determines the large differences in the sales prices are the topography of the lot, with flat driveways being the premium, the upgrades, mostly to the kitchen and bathroom fixtures and appliances, and the size of the bedrooms and living room, where some homes are as large as 1700 square feet, and others are as small at 1200 square feet, and the distribution of that extra spaced mattering less than the total size, such that large homes sell for a bit more in total purchase price, but sell for a bit less in price per square foot, such that every home that is well maintained is priced between $275,000 and $325,000. At $285,000 this home might seem like a great deal, but because of the small footprint, I think this one is priced just about right. We will have to watch it to see how fast it sells
This might seem like a unique property, but actually, after looking at dozens of properties at the very lowest end of the price curve a definite pattern emerges in the pricing of homes similar to this. It is not that difficult to establish the value of the land, the value of the garage, and the value of the trailer. There are comparable sales that match one two of these vectors, and by comparing several sales with varying degrees of similar features and amenities, a triangulated value can be established. Whatever this buyer and sell end up agreeing on as the fair market value, it will impact future sales moderated by whatever factors are determined to have made the price go up or down regarding the expectation based on previous sales.
I am not going to link with all the videos that are in the data pool. I will just summarize:
Land Value- $100,000 to $125,000
Garage Value- $35,000 to $50,000
Trailer Value- $25,000 to $50,000
The land value and the garage value are easy to establish, the value of the trailer will depend on inspections and investigation. My visual inspection put it in a range that could be as high as $50,000 or as $25,000. If you take the high value on all three vectors, the price would be $225,000. The low value is $160,000. The rest will be determined by a buyer making a real offer and the seller responding.
I have looked at lots of 2 bedroom and 1 bathroom homes in and around Grass Valley in the last year. Most of them are on city lots, but there has also been a few of these smaller homes on rural lots. This home was built in 1972, T111 siding with fir batons. The home is clean, but dated, and dark. This home was listed for $349,000 in August of 2017. Clearly the market rejected that price, but $330,000 six months later is no prize for buyers. If the home was in great condition, it would be an interesting test of the value buyers put on rural neighborhoods verses city lots, but given the poor condition of the home, this one is really cosmetic fixer, in need up a facelift in all the major areas. New kitchen, new bathroom, new lighting, new windows and paint, and this home could be quite nice, as any home would! The landscaping has been neglected for years, trees all need trimming, this home is a lot of work. buyers just don’t see the value.
All that being said, it is the winter market, and there are so few homes for sale right now, a desperate buyer with $350,000 budget might be forced to give this one a second look. Until the spring inventory comes around, homes like this one may actually sell. After all, the only reason I went out to see it was because I had completely previewed every home under $325,000. I have looked at everything. This is the next home up on the price curve. There is nothing else out there. I never tell buyers to low-ball offers. I think it is better to look for motivated sellers and find value in the a price fairly near what the seller is asking, but every once and awhile I see a home that is just so far over priced and has been listed for such a long time, I think it might be ripe for an offer. I think closer to $280,000 is fair market. A $250,000 cash offer would not be steeling the property, but it would allow for a buyer to go in, do some updating, and get sweat equity for the investment.
So, here is the second home this week to be listed in the Lake Wildwood subdivision. Yesterday we looked at Woodchuck, a 3/2 rancher on a perfectly flat lot, today we get the two-story home, in very similar, move-in ready condition, but on a very steep downslope lot. This home is a bit smaller, just 1368 sf, while the Woodchuck home was a bit over 1600 sf. But condition and amenities are very similar. The big difference between these two homes is the floor plan, Woodchuck the single story rancher, and this home, a two-story modern. Buyers will decide! If the home on Woodchuck sells first, then it might very well indicate the value of a flat lot, but if this home sells first, then the $30,000 price differential clearly made the difference for the buyer.