13636 Newtown Road, older manufactured home on nearly 4 acres with Deer Creek Frontage, listed for $219,000

When looking under $250,000 I see a large number of these older manufactured homes, often times, like this one, they are on post and peer foundations, and have lots of deferred maintenance. This one is typical. What is not typical is the frontage on Deer Creek. The location is almost at the corner of Bitney Springs and Newtown, so there is a bit of road noise, but you can’t see the road, and I doubt you would hear much late at night or early in the morning. There is one neighbor on the same access driveway, but the neighbor’s home appears to be in equal disrepair and not currently occupied. The road in a bit rough, looks like it might flood during the winter, but the house is up on a ridge well above the riparian area, so the home looks comfortably free from potential river flooding. The home itself looks and needs an extreme make-over, and I don’t anything about the well or septic, but the location is idyllic, with sound of the river permeating the home, and big windows looking out to the water. Without inspections there is no way to put a value on the mobile, but the land is probably worth $150,000 to $175,000, which means the property is likely priced fairly close to fair market, or maybe just a little over. (Figure the mobile is worth $30,000 or so.)

18679 Acorn Place 1.38 Acres just south of Alta Sierra, with several nonconforming buildings, listed for $179,000

A year ago this same property sold for $115,000. It was covered with junked cars, old trailers, and trash. The new owner has hauled away the trash and cars, most of the trailers are gone and what remains in a couple of buildings that have no value and no structural integrity. There probably is an old septic somewhere, water comes from a meter in the street. The new owner has also graded the driveway and added some new perimeter fencing near the street and on the uphill side. It is a fairly nice property, and the neighborhood could sustain a $400,000, but the existing infrastructure would need to be scraped away and a new home built from foundation up. $179,000 for the lot is a bit pricy. The actual value is probably pretty close to what the owner paid for it a year ago, around $115,000. For about $10,000 or $15,000 you could scrape this lot clean and have a nice home site for a new development.

12777 Blue Jay Court, listed for $239,000 and a very similar home right next door at 10073 Schroeder Way, Listed for $145,000. What’s up with that!

12777 Blue Jay Court

10073 Schroeder Way

On 5/9/18 I wrote the following about the Blue Jay Court home… The math does not seem to work out.
The lot is a very nice property, but it located in a rather undesirable neighborhood. I estimate the lot is worth $100,000. Assuming the septic system and well are both in good operating condition, add $25,000 to the value. The double carport adds another $10,000. The home and deck, and everything else, maybe $60,000 to $75,000. That is generous. You still only get to $200,000, and yet, it went pending in just a few days at a list price of $239,000. Perhaps the seller saw good offer and took it. What matter is the settlement price, which will be known only after it closes. If it sells for something north of $225,000 then the needle for the price point really has moved up this spring. We will just have to watch this one and see what the actual price a buyer was willing to pay turn out to be.

Then a week later it fell out of escrow, I presume because the buyer figured out they had made a very bad decision about valuation! So, here we are less than 2 weeks later and the house right next door comes on the market, larger lot, nicer home, and it listed for $145,000. That price actually makes good sense to me.

345 Carol, Another double wide that needs to be torn down, listed for $219,000

Homes come up for sale in clusters. We already reviewed one home on Stanley a few weeks ago- also a double wide that was in such poor condition it could not be rehabilitated. This one is almost the same, except it has no garage, the yard is larger, but the neighborhood is a bit less desirable. The one on Stanley was listed for $250,000 and is currently listed for $225,000. This one starts out at $219,000, but I think it will end up under $200,000.

That being said, the seller can carry, maybe with as little at $30,000 down… Would that work for anyone? Maybe.

12582 Old French Road, A singlewide trailer on a gorgeous piece of land, listed for $209,000, will require a cash buyer

This might seem like a unique property, but actually, after looking at dozens of properties at the very lowest end of the price curve a definite pattern emerges in the pricing of homes similar to this. It is not that difficult to establish the value of the land, the value of the garage, and the value of the trailer. There are comparable sales that match one two of these vectors, and by comparing several sales with varying degrees of similar features and amenities, a triangulated value can be established. Whatever this buyer and sell end up agreeing on as the fair market value, it will impact future sales moderated by whatever factors are determined to have made the price go up or down regarding the expectation based on previous sales.

I am not going to link with all the videos that are in the data pool. I will just summarize:
Land Value- $100,000 to $125,000
Garage Value- $35,000 to $50,000
Trailer Value- $25,000 to $50,000

The land value and the garage value are easy to establish, the value of the trailer will depend on inspections and investigation. My visual inspection put it in a range that could be as high as $50,000 or as $25,000. If you take the high value on all three vectors, the price would be $225,000. The low value is $160,000. The rest will be determined by a buyer making a real offer and the seller responding.

10822 Alta Sierra Drive, Older Manufactured, listed for $229,000. No conventional financing for manufactured homes of this era.

Great location, smaller lot, but very convenient in terms of access to the highway. The challenge here is the age of the manufactured home. Installed in 1975, regardless of the condition, lenders do not like to provide financing on manufactured homes this old. Looking around with a careful eye for deferred maintenance, I notice first and foremost, the roof appears to be leaking, and it appears from the ground spotting I could do, that it is over 20 years old, and might even be the original roof! Siding is also an issue. Some dry rot is evident around the front of the home. The garage looks equally shabby. Overall, this home, even though it is clean, really just needs carpets and paint and a bit of updating, isn’t structurally worth making the repairs. The highest use, would be to remove the existing home and repurpose the foundation for a new modular. This is a very common practice with these older manufactured homes, and lenders are open to this kind of improvement. Then it just becomes a question of the valuation of the lot. The lot, even with the driveway, septic, and foundation, is not worth $229,000. The lot and improvements is probably not worth more than $100,000. That means you would paying a premium for over $100,000 for the privilege of tearing down the existing home! Now, maybe if you were going to live in it for five years, not spend any money on fixing it up, and then tear it down replace it, that might justify spending, say $200,000 for the home “AS IS” But you would really have to live in without spending any more money on it for a few years to recoup some of your investment costs in the structure. That’s why I looked at the condition, and seeing that it needs a new roof immediately, the idea of buying it and living it, is not appealing. OK, all for now.
Gordon